Mekelle, Ethiopia – As the country celebrates the quick resumption of flights, banking and telecom services in the region following the visit of a delegation of federal government officials, experts are calling for caution to avoid repeating past mistakes.
According to an analysis by Ethiomedia, while the speedy implementation of the Pretoria and Nairobi Agreements must be supported and encouraged, mechanisms for lasting peace and justice must be put in place. The article suggests that the Mekelle-Finfinne rapprochement of the past weeks resembles the peace deal with Asmara four years ago, and the quick tendency to say “let bygones be bygones” without properly reflecting on and addressing the root causes of the conflict is a chilling reminder of what happened in the summer of 2018 with the Ethio-Eritrea detente.
The analysis highlights that the appearance of normalisation is moving way faster than detailed agreement on substantive issues that led to the conflict. It is important to remember that mutual mistrust between politicians in Mekele and Finfinne led to the outbreak of the war. The Nairobi agreement on DDR mentions in passing the (re)integration of armed combatants, which suggests no agreement was reached in this regard.
The article goes on to suggest that both parties should ask and answer questions such as: How many of the Tigrayan forces will be reintegrated into ENDF? What would be the fate of former Tigrean members of ENDF who were decommissioned and who are reportedly still in detention? Will they be reinstated? These and other issues need serious negotiation and the agreements reached should be made public so that we don’t go back to fear mongering and conspiracy theories.
Importantly, the article points out that speaking of DDR, the focus should not be only on Tigrean combatants, but on all soldiers at various battlefields in Ethiopia. Currently, it is estimated that there are close to a million soldiers at various battlefields in Ethiopia (ENDF, TDF, Amhara SF & Fano, OLA). The country’s economy cannot support more than 150k standing army at best. This means some 800k soldiers need to go through DDR, if and when political settlement is reached to a satisfying level whereby fighting groups agree to lay down arms.
In conclusion, the article emphasizes that while the speedy implementation of the Pretoria and Nairobi Agreements must be supported and encouraged, we should not get carried away or fail to lay down mechanisms for lasting peace and justice properly. It also highlights that the reintegration of armed forces who fought on both sides will be essential for removing the mutual insecurity and suspicion of one another.